AGP Executive Report

G7 Finance Push on Hormuz: G7 ministers and central bankers meeting in Paris agreed the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened and warned the Middle East conflict is stoking energy, food and fertiliser supply-chain stress, while also pledging multilateral cooperation and keeping pressure on Russia. NATO Readiness Talk: NATO’s top Europe commander said he’s “thinking” about a possible Hormuz role, but stressed no formal planning is underway—while noting European navies are already considering options. Italy’s Energy Angle: Eni is weighing a third floating LNG platform in Mozambique’s Rovuma basin, aiming to build on its second Coral North project. Supply-Chain Pressure: The EU is reportedly leaning on longer-term plans—including cow manure—as it faces a fertiliser squeeze linked to Hormuz disruption. War-Crimes Court: In The Hague, a former Libyan prison boss faces ICC “confirmation of charges” hearings over alleged torture, rape and killings at Mitiga prison. Local Tech & Power: CEP USA opened its first US prefabricated substation plant in North Little Rock, partnering with SMA to supply medium-voltage power stations.

Middle East Shock to Markets: G7 finance ministers met in Paris as the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively closed and oil-price pressure fed fears of higher inflation and tighter rates. Italy’s Energy Politics: In parallel, Italy’s PM Meloni pushed the EU for fiscal flexibility to cushion energy costs, as bond yields climbed across Europe. Auto Industry Signal: Stellantis unveiled plans for a small, affordable European electric “E-Car,” targeting production at Pomigliano d’Arco in 2028—another bet on reshaping everyday urban mobility. Renewables Feedstock Push: Hyosung is scaling sugarcane-based Bio-BDO output in Vietnam to help manufacturers shift from fossil inputs. Regional Energy Security Tension: Indonesia floated an ASEAN oil-storage hub, but analysts warn distrust and weak regional coordination could derail it. Human Tragedy in the Mediterranean: Maldives investigators confirmed bodies of four Italian divers deep inside a cave, while authorities probe what went wrong.

Energy Crisis Politics: Italy’s PM Meloni has renewed pressure on the European Commission to loosen EU fiscal rules for energy, arguing energy security should get the same “strategic priority” treatment as defence and warning Rome could even exit the SAFE defence programme if Brussels won’t grant flexibility. EU Power Costs: A new EU snapshot says Italy still has the highest electricity prices in the bloc, even after cutting Russian gas dependence to under 3% of demand in 2025. Middle East Risk: The push comes as Strait of Hormuz disruption fears return, keeping oil and gas volatility front and centre for Europe. Ukraine Grid Support: Separately, Ukraine’s energy ministry says more than 3,200 units of power equipment have arrived since the start of 2026, with another 1,465 generators expected. Green Deals: Italy also appears in the wider energy diplomacy mix, from data-centre renewables projects in Oman to EU-facing clean-energy partnerships.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil jumped more than 2% after Donald Trump warned Iran “there won’t be anything left,” as the Strait of Hormuz stays largely blocked and inventories tighten—raising the odds of higher prices through peak summer demand. EU Energy Security: With Hormuz risk front and center, G7 finance talks in Paris put energy disruption and inflation pressure on the agenda, while Balkan grid operators warn the green transition needs transmission capacity to keep up. Italy Grid & Build: Webuild says it has finished Riyadh Metro’s Western Station, completing its Orange Line works—an example of large-scale infrastructure delivery tied to energy efficiency goals. Biofuels & Shipping: Rotterdam’s B30 advanced biofuel blend pricing moved up, and green methanol deals keep locking in supply ahead of vessel rollouts. Italy Angle (Policy): Italy’s nuclear debate resurfaces as Meloni pushes a return framework, while broader geopolitics keeps energy policy in focus.

Nuclear comeback debate: Italy’s Meloni has reignited the nuclear power push, arguing today’s instability and high electricity prices make imported energy less acceptable—while critics warn of environmental and political risks. Jet-fuel pressure test: Across Europe, airlines and airports are publicly downplaying summer jet-fuel shortage fears even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked and oil prices stay elevated—so the risk is shifting from “supply” to “price.” Energy-cost squeeze hits food: Italian tomato producer Mutti warns energy costs are running about 50% higher than expected, with possible price moves after the peak harvest window. Construction & sustainability: Webuild says it has completed Riyadh Metro’s Western Station, touting LEED Gold design and reduced water/energy use during construction. Markets watch: G7 finance ministers meet in Paris as growth worries and Middle East shocks keep inflation and borrowing costs in focus.

Eurovision Shockwave: Bulgaria won Eurovision 2026 in Vienna with Dara’s “Bangaranga,” beating Israel at the finish and turning a politically fraught contest into a dramatic, points-swinging finale. Maldives Tragedy: A military diver died while searching for the bodies of five Italian divers trapped in a cave; Italy’s foreign ministry says it’s coordinating on recovery and repatriation as investigators look into what went wrong. Markets Watch: Britain’s bond market is demanding higher yields again, with investors linking the move to political uncertainty and energy-driven inflation worries. Energy Security Angle: India’s PM Modi pushed an “open and safe” Strait of Hormuz during a UAE stop, with talks also focused on boosting strategic oil storage as Iran-related disruptions keep pressure on importers. Sports Spotlight: Elina Svitolina won the Italian Open in Rome, while Jannik Sinner’s semifinal was paused by heavy rain as he chased a spot in the final.

Eni’s Cyprus push: Eni has awarded a Chinese contractor a contract to build the floating control unit for its Cronos gas project offshore Cyprus, a key first upstream development that will route Cypriot gas via Egypt’s Zohr tie-back and into Damietta LNG for export; the FCU is set to be built at China Merchants Heavy Industry’s Haimen facility, with detailed engineering reportedly going to Shanghai Tuohai Lide Engineering Design. Peace vs rearmament: Pope Leo XIV used a Rome university speech to warn that Europe’s rush to boost military spending is draining money from education and health and undermining diplomacy. Hormuz pressure on energy markets: With Iran’s Strait of Hormuz disruption still reshaping flows, jet fuel prices have jumped while airlines cut schedules—pushing expected European shortages further out. Italy-Cyprus diplomacy: Giorgia Meloni is set to visit Cyprus on May 17 to upgrade cooperation, with defense and energy on the agenda.

Energy Shock Watch: Markets are bracing for “interest-rate pain” as the Iran conflict keeps oil and gas volatility elevated. Global Finance: US 10-year Treasury yields jumped to about a one-year high, dragging stocks and rattling bond markets worldwide, with Brent pushing above $109/bbl and Europe’s Stoxx 600 logging weekly losses. Italy Angle: AIB’s latest analysis flags a tough spot for countries like Italy—weak fiscal room paired with heavy energy import dependence—making price swings hit harder. Gulf-India Link: PM Modi’s UAE stop before a five-nation Europe tour underscores how energy security is now central to diplomacy, with talks focused on long-term oil/LNG arrangements and defence cooperation. Human Cost: Italy is also dealing with the aftermath of the Maldives cave tragedy, where recovery efforts for five divers were suspended due to rough seas.

Hormuz Pressure Hits Markets: Indian PM Narendra Modi kicked off a five-nation tour in Abu Dhabi, urging an “open and safe” Strait of Hormuz as Iran-linked disruptions keep oil and shipping nerves raw; India and the UAE agreed on expanded crude storage and strategic energy deals, including LPG supply pacts, with the Gulf route still a major share of India’s imports. Italy Energy Corporate Moves: SOCAR has appointed Levan Davitashvili as CEO of Italiana Petroli after completing its near-total stake acquisition—signaling tighter integration of the Italian firm into the Azerbaijani group. Finance Meets Geopolitics: Global bonds sold off as oil prices jumped on Iran-war escalation fears, lifting yields and feeding a broader risk-off mood across European markets. Industrial Strategy Watch: Stellantis and Dongfeng signed a $1.2bn China production deal for Peugeot and Jeep vehicles, underscoring how auto supply chains are being reshaped by geopolitics and energy-cost expectations. Security Planning: European allies are also laying groundwork for possible Hormuz maritime protection, with Italian minesweepers and other assets moving toward the region.

Energy Diplomacy Push: PM Modi has kicked off a five-nation swing—UAE, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy—aimed squarely at energy security and strategic ties, with talks in Abu Dhabi expected to center on long-term supply and new LPG and strategic petroleum reserve MoUs. Industrial Moves in Europe’s Orbit: Stellantis and Dongfeng signed an ~€1bn deal to build Peugeot and Jeep models in China from 2027, including energy vehicles, underscoring how European automakers are doubling down on China production. EU Security Debate: Eastern EU states back a possible Strait of Hormuz mission but insist it must not dilute NATO’s eastern deterrence focus—an issue that keeps feeding Europe’s energy-risk calculations. Renewables on the Ground (Italy): Zelestra launched its first operational Italian agrivoltaic plant in Ginosa, Puglia (6.5 MWdc), targeting 11.7 GWh/year while keeping farming activity in play. Grid/Tech Policy Watch: EU cybersecurity law revisions are drawing warnings that excluding “high-risk” suppliers could cost Italy and the bloc hundreds of billions in lost investment.

Grid Storage Milestone: Ingeteam says it has powered Italy’s 200 MW/800 MWh battery project—now operating since Sept 2024—by supplying 54 plug-and-play medium-voltage power stations plus monitoring systems designed to track battery health and flag issues early. Energy Security Shock: With the Strait of Hormuz “effectively closed” amid the Iran–US conflict, shipping transits have fallen to near zero on many days, keeping oil prices above $100 and raising fears of wider supply strain for Europe. Jet Fuel Calm vs. Risk: Despite the Hormuz disruption, European airlines and airports are publicly downplaying summer jet-fuel shortage fears, saying schedules should run normally—while traders and the IEA warn supply-demand gaps could still bite. Corporate Move in Italy’s Oil Sector: SOCAR has appointed Levan Davitashvili as CEO of Italiana Petroli after completing its €2.9bn acquisition.

Jet Fuel Calm, Hormuz Storm: European airlines and tour operators are publicly downplaying a jet-fuel shortage ahead of summer, arguing there’s “no indication” of supply gaps even as Strait of Hormuz blockades keep oil flows tight and prices have doubled since the pre-Iran-war era. Energy Diplomacy: PM Modi’s May 15 UAE stop is set to lock in LPG supply and strategic oil-reserve pacts, as India seeks steadier energy security amid West Asia volatility. Eni in Iraq: Eni says 2025 output in Iraq rose to about 11m barrels of oil liquids and 30bn cubic feet of gas, supporting higher overall production. Nuclear Reboot Watch: Italy’s Meloni is preparing a summer framework to reopen the nuclear debate, aiming to cut import dependence with modern reactor options. Cyber Risk: A new survey finds over 70% of organizations faced identity-related breaches in the past year, with Italy among the higher-rate countries.

Hormuz Watch: Italy is pre-positioning two minesweepers near the Strait of Hormuz, but Defense Minister Guido Crosetto says any deployment needs a “genuine, credible, and stable truce” plus parliamentary approval—weeks of logistics ahead if conditions change. Nuclear Policy: Giorgia Meloni told parliament Italy will approve a framework to restart nuclear power this summer, aiming to use next-generation small reactors to cut costs and boost energy autonomy. Grid Investment: ABB plans a $200m expansion across Europe, including a new $100m medium-voltage switchgear plant in Dalmine, as utilities and data centers push for faster grid upgrades. Energy Diplomacy: India and the UAE are set to deepen LPG and strategic petroleum reserve deals during Modi’s UAE visit amid Strait of Hormuz disruption fears. Corporate Shift: Italiana Petroli has a new CEO, Levan Davitashvili, after SOCAR completed its near-total acquisition.

LNG Finance Push: Eni is in early talks with Morgan Stanley and infrastructure funds including Apollo, KKR and Stonepeak to raise at least €1bn using cash flows backed by its floating LNG (FLNG) assets, aiming to free capital for new projects as Iran-war disruptions keep LNG competition tight. Energy Security Warning: Bank of Greece governor Yannis Stournaras tells Avvenire that Europe’s recent crises show the need for coordinated investment in interconnections and diversification, plus faster renewables and stronger shared crisis tools. Grid & Industry Electrification: ROTAIR will unveil an inverter-driven electric portable air compressor prototype (VRK-e) at SaMoTer in Verona, targeting job sites that still rely on combustion-powered units. Market Mood: Oil prices have eased on hopes of an Iran-war end, while UK borrowing costs jumped amid political uncertainty. EU Policy Context: EU carbon trading reform is framed as a revenue boost for industry, even as energy-price shocks keep feeding inflation debates.

Eni LNG finance push: Italy’s Eni has asked Morgan Stanley to line up talks with infrastructure investors (including Apollo, KKR and Stonepeak) for a potential deal backed by its floating LNG assets, aiming to raise at least €1bn, with early-stage discussions and no guarantee of a transaction. EU carbon rules: EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra says the ETS overhaul is designed to return more revenue to industry as an “incentive” to decarbonise, while arguing Europe still needs renewables and nuclear. Grid pressure in the Med: Malta has issued a tender for a third interconnector, even as critics point to delays on the second promised link. Italy economy watch: Reuters reports industrial output rose 0.7% in March, but the first quarter still slipped slightly, with energy-cost shocks from the Iran conflict expected to bite into the second quarter. Energy storage rollout: BLUETTI launched the ES125 liquid-cooled 125kW/257kWh system for commercial and industrial customers.

Aviation Fuel Crunch Looms: NATO’s push to prioritize military deliveries through the Central Europe Pipeline System (CEPS) is starting to squeeze commercial jet fuel supplies at Europe’s busiest airports, with the IEA warning of potential shortages within weeks if Strait of Hormuz disruptions worsen. Diplomacy on Energy Security: India’s PM Modi kicks off a May 15–20 tour to the UAE, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy, with energy cooperation front and center as West Asia tensions strain oil and foreign-currency buffers. Italy-Linked Offshore Work: Milan’s NextGeo won a ~€10m Central Mediterranean subsea survey contract, running through Q3 2026, tied to power-cable installation and UXO clearance. Sanctions Pressure in the North: Sweden detained two suspects over alleged help for Russia-bound high-tech shipments, signaling tighter EU enforcement. Corporate Watch: UK energy customers were told to expect no immediate service disruption after E.ON agreed to buy OVO.